The hottest paper market is full of anxiety with u

The paper market is full of anxiety with unknown expectations, and the whole industry has become a frog in warm water

release date: Source: carton industry editor: bag Views: 2233 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: this year, the import of waste paper is only half of that of previous years, "food" is less, people are more sensitive to hunger, "I don't know where to eat" panic, which is also increasing the feeling of hunger

[China Packaging News] this year, the import of waste paper is only half of that of previous years. With less "food", people are more sensitive to hunger. The panic of "I don't know where to eat" is also invisibly aggravating the feeling of hunger

the goodwill of employees and people who have a sense of the industry will inevitably sigh that "price increases are frequent and disorderly, and the country will be defeated"

it is precisely because the market trend is contrary to the goodwill of the people that it triggers the overall anxiety, which turns into anxiety. The external performance is that the price rises and falls suddenly, which is more and more incomprehensible compared with last year. This also shows that the anxiety cycle is shortened, although unsustainable, but the frequency is increased

throughout may, it almost became a condensed version of the market in 2017

at the beginning of May, due to the explosion of waste paper forbidden by the Sino US trade war, waste paper, base paper and paperboard rose together, and the excitement lasted less than 10 days. Waste paper fell slightly, base paper remained at a high level, and paperboard fell secretly to grab the order. The "opening four stops three, 14 billion pieces in 2014" was not bleak. Unexpectedly, at the end of May, Dongguan Paperboard Factory raised its low price and staged a price reversal

due to the shortage of national waste, the paper mills have raised the purchase price, but the waste paper merchants have no choice but to sell the waste paper. As a result, "empty price, price reduction and receipt" has become a standard script for the purchase of waste paper

therefore, waste paper trading and paperboard trading are like a restaurant. Either no one comes to eat and the birds come out of leisure, or they come together to rob. They must close the door and block people. The trading is uneven, and many things happen in their lives. This also increases the operation cost of the whole industrial chain

in this situation, people couldn't help shouting, "can you still do business happily!"

however, the reduction of waste paper has indeed broken the previous balance

in May, for the first time in history, many paper mills announced shutdown and overhaul - Guangdong Liwen, Fujian Liansheng, Rongcheng paper, Dongguan Jianhui, Wugang Huanneng technology have shut down or stopped orders

people always say that this is a routine, routine, routine!!! The heart of man is not ancient, and unscrupulous businessmen are rampant

if chaos occurs frequently, there will be demons

this demon is the "demon" of people in all industrial chains after the shortage of waste paper

why is there no rush to buy pork and salt now? Because, you know, that thing is guaranteed. Eat now and buy now

only when the total supply is tight, uncertain, and the expectation is unclear, can we be anxious. The shutdown of large paper mills is also in response to the weak demand and insufficient supply. The most important and frequent reason for sensor failure of spring fatigue testing machine is that the overload of experimental force continues, and shutdown is a kind of self-protection

waste paper merchants are reluctant to sell, paper mills "cheat paper" at low prices, and cardboard mills rebound at low prices, which are all self-protection. What's more, without the centralized orders of three-level factories at low prices, can cardboard rise? In fact, everyone wants to protect themselves, including the price, the startup rate and the breakeven point of the factory. We always regard our self-protection as justice, while others' self-protection is just a routine

the frequent occurrence of the game of "cat and mouse chasing each other" in this circle is due to the general environment of the policy. No one can avoid vulgarity

since May 2018, the amount of imported waste paper has decreased by nearly 50% year-on-year compared with 2017. This reduction can be recognized that the output of base paper has been reduced by 25%, and the operating rate of paper mills is only 75% of that of previous years. Therefore, the machine had to be shut down for maintenance

on March 1, 2018, the latest standard of 0.5% impurity content of external waste and further increasing brand popularity will be implemented, and the customs needs 100% unpacking inspection. This is a standard that can stop almost all waste paper. What the hell is waste paper containing 0.5% impurities? The price of waste paper went up because of it

on May 22, 2018, the General Administration of Customs "blue sky 2018" cracked down on the anti smuggling action of foreign garbage, further announcing the national will

on May 25th, 2018, Nine Dragons Paper announced the acquisition of two hundred year old paper mills in the United States, thereby adding 1.41 million tons of capacity to nine dragons. Recently, sun paper, Shanying paper, HengAn international, app, Asia Pacific Senbo, China paper and other large enterprises have deployed pulp production capacity overseas. This shows that large enterprises have already "understood" in action

ran bingovo

I'm hungry, and now I'm talking about raising chickens

the forced mechanism of national policies needs a time cycle of recognition. The state first restricts the waste from outside, and then the action of large enterprises is in response to the policy of the country's paper production capacity outward migration. This is like the gradual rise of water temperature, frogs will find their own way

therefore, it is impossible for me to expand production capacity when the price of paper falls. It's impossible

the water temperature will only rise

the price will not only rise, but also stay close to the reference price of imported base paper and pulp (wood pulp), and new supplies will come. It is almost impossible to try to reduce the price of base paper with low-cost waste. The current waste paper price has almost become the "benchmark" of the base paper price. The market price is not based on the cost of using foreign waste, but on the price of domestic waste

even if all small paper mills withdraw from the market, the domestic price will also be compared with the price of imported base paper. The high price of paper will become the normal market

where do frogs live in an industry with rising water temperature

waste paper, it is impossible to fall. I don't have so much waste paper myself, and I also export so many packaging. How can I live without importing waste paper. Now the customs is also strict, and the standard is also very high. Generally, waste paper can't come in, which makes me sell at a high price every day. I like them very much

Disclaimer:

this article only introduces a thinking analysis mode for the industry. Some data may have errors, which should not be published as authority and should not be used as the basis for long and short selling. Based on this speculation, the risk is borne by oneself